Caleb University dons foresee harsh economy before 2027 elections, canvass strategic reforms
Economic and policy experts at Caleb University have projected tougher economic conditions for Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections.
They also warned that rising political activities, global geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation could further strain businesses and households if urgent reforms are not sustained by the Federal Government.
The duo of Dr. Raymond Aleghona and Dr. Felicia Adeyemo of the College of Arts, Social and Management Sciences (CASMAS) at Caleb University gave the warning at a high-level symposium organised by the institution’s Centre for Political Issues and Economic Thoughts with the theme: “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook in a Pre-Election Year: Navigating Domestic Trends and Global Geopolitical Shocks.”
The symposium dissected Nigeria’s economic realities in the crucial pre-election year and highlighted the fragile nature of current economic gains despite moderate improvements in inflation figures and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections.
In his opening remark, the Director of the Centre, Dr. Samuel Idowu, said Nigeria’s pre-election years have historically been characterised by aggressive political spending, heightened policy uncertainty and economic volatility capable of reversing hard-earned gains.
“In Nigeria’s political system, the pre-election year witnesses intense activities ranging from party primaries and campaigns to strategic political alignments and litigations. These activities naturally impact public spending patterns and economic stability,” he stated.
In his presentation, Aleghona noted that although inflation moderated to about 15 percent in March, with April figures ending at 15.38 percent, the cost of living remains unbearably high for millions of Nigerians.
He described the projected GDP growth rates of 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026 as modest and vulnerable to both domestic and international shocks.
Aleghona warned that the expected surge in pre-election spending on infrastructure, welfare packages and politically motivated projects could worsen inflationary pressures, increase borrowing and further weaken the naira.
He also linked the ongoing United States-Israel-Iran tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to the sharp increase in fuel prices in Nigeria and other parts of the world, stressing that the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products continues to expose the economy to external shocks.
Adeyemo, who spoke on the implications of the challenges for businesses, described 2026 as a defining economic year that would test the resilience, adaptability and strategic capacity of organisations operating in Nigeria.
She identified telecommunications, fintech, renewable energy, mining, financial services and agro-processing as sectors likely to experience sustained growth.
The don warned that manufacturing and import-dependent businesses could face severe pressure from rising operating costs, foreign exchange instability and expensive raw materials.
Adeyemo urged businesses to embrace digital innovation, improve operational efficiency, diversify supply chains and design products that remain affordable to consumers battling declining purchasing power.
The symposium also produced a number of strategic recommendations aimed at stabilising the economy and strengthening investor confidence.
Some of the recommendations made at the workshop include accelerated diversification of the economy, stronger support for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), expansion of industrial production and improved contribution from non-oil sectors.
Others are sustained reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilise the foreign exchange market, reduction of inflationary pressures and restoration of investor confidence, among others.
